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Johnson's Russia List 20 July davidjohnson erols. Gleb Pavlovsky 3. Simple logic forbade me. Did he? No question. Oh, that's right f it was the state.
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Johnson's Russia List 20 July davidjohnson erols. Gleb Pavlovsky 3. Simple logic forbade me. Did he? No question. Oh, that's right f it was the state. Did someone in the state get a kickback, then? These are all rhetorical questions. We know the answers. And lots of hard work. Yevgenia Albats is an independent journalist. That is not true. He possesses the necessary resources and ties. But all forces of the old order are weaker than the new ones. Reform of the Federation Council has not failed, it is happening.
But, in my opinion, the leadership is not going to rush either. That era is now at an end. They are to be replaced by appointed legislators. Now they are barred from the Federation Council as of Most Duma deputies agreed with these arguments. This battle may not be over yet. That would send the bill back to the Duma. Analysts are estimating Russia's year-end inflation could be as high as 35 percent, almost double the 18 percent upon which Russia's budget was founded.
Wrangles between the administration and the Duma are significantly reducing the probability of economic growth. The result will be a stagnant economy beset by inflation. Analysis Russian economists are sounding warning bells. According to Segovnaya, presidential advisor Andrei Illarionov claimed that Russia's economic competitiveness had decreased by 30 percent since the beginning of the year. Inflation too, is a problem. In the first six months of the year inflation jumped 9.
The reform efforts are half of a two part plan, the other half being foreign investment. Neither effort will succeed without the other. Foreigners won't invest in a corrupted economy, and painful reforms will only hurt the public if that investment fails to materialize. In the coming months, it is unlikely the reforms will achieve their goal. Instead, inflation will continue to strengthen, weakening the already tenuous economic hold of the Russian population. Most observers are parroting Putin's June 3 statement faulting increases in Russia's money supply for the inflation.
While the money supply undoubtedly plays a role, the Kremlin's reforms - which have directly raised prices - are the true culprit.
As the official argument goes, federal law requires exporters to sell 75 percent of their hard currency earnings to the Central Bank in exchange for rubles. The immediate result is an increase in the amount of money in the Russian economy. With more money in circulation, producers can charge more for their limited number of goods. The result is demand-pull inflation.
Several of Putin's policies reinforce this demand-pull inflation. Putin has committed his government to paying up all wage arrears, and the Duma and Federation Council have already agreed to more than triple the minimum wage percent over the next 12 months.
On July 10 Putin raised the average pension by one-sixth, the third raise this year, and set the stage for further increases in Like the Central Bank's policy on appropriating hard currency, these moves increase the amount of cash in the economy without raising productivity: more demand-pull inflation.
But Russia's Central Bank statistics indicate the money supply has not kept up with the hype. That means billion rubles should have entered the money supply. However, according to the Russian Central Bank, from January to June the money supply only increased by billion rubles.
So if the official line is at best only partly correct, what is actually causing the inflation? The results are increased costs for the basic consumables in Russian society: Electricity prices have soared 55 percent, natural gas 15 percent to 20 percent, vodka 40 percent and telephone lines 15 percent.
This is cost-push inflation, and it directly affects all Russians. Russia has few tools to deal with its inflation. Russia could use some of its This would both improve Russia's internal debt and mop up a few billion excess rubles, partially offsetting the demand-pull inflation. But the only thing that can alleviate cost-push inflation is stable, broad-based economic growth.
Petroleum sales don't count. The only way Russia can achieve that growth is by increasing worker productivity. That requires strong managerial skills, new technology and abundant capital - three things that Russia lacks, but foreigners have.
Simply put, Russia needs foreign investment. That investment remains elusive. The ruble crash, combined with endemic corruption, burned most foreign investors. To lure those investors back, Putin is implementing two types of reform: legal and economic. Under Putin's firm hand, Russia has already taken the first legal reforms: getting the government out of business, getting business out of the government and strengthening the rule of law - albeit through the implementation of a police state.
Putin is knocking the oligarchs down to size as well. The latest target is Anatoly Chubais, former privatization minister and Yeltsin chief of staff and currently head of Unified Energy Systems, Russia's electricity monopoly. On the economic front, Putin is revamping the tax system and dismantling price controls.
Yet, the economic reforms must be approved and implemented quickly in order to work without triggering hyperinflation. It is difficult to understate the obstacles to progress. While currently on the run, the oligarchs still control vast tracts of the economy.
Russian culture, traumatized by decades of communism and previous rounds of shock therapy, lacks the ingrained civic responsibility - not to mention corruption-free law enforcers - needed to ground an advanced economy. The regional governors have met with some recent success.
After vetoing a law in the Federation Council that would reduce their power, regional governors managed to convince Duma deputies to water down many of Kasyanov's new taxes that would shift the burden away from Russia's beleaguered producers and onto its beleaguered consumers.
For example, Kasyanov proposed 20, and percent increases on alcohol, tobacco and gasoline taxes, but the Duma only approved 5, 50 and percent increases, respectively, according to the Moscow Times.
More importantly, the Duma also voted to keep one of Russia's odious turnover taxes. Turnover taxes are perhaps the single most damaging feature of the Russian economic system. First of all, they apply to every transaction a business makes: salaries, advertising, sales, rent, utilities, phone lines, equipment rental, etc. Second, they are applied cumulatively with all other taxes: payroll, excise, fuel, profit, etc.
Turnover taxes encourage dishonest bookkeeping and barter trade, which in turn pushes the economy toward the corruption-prone black market. After all, if there is no transaction to record and no cash to trace, there is no tax to pay. Furthermore, the Duma chose to keep the worst of a bad lot: the road tax.
Unlike many other taxes, this one pays into the regions - not the federal government. The Duma's insistence on the continued existence of an onerous tax that encourages such widespread, high-level corruption is exactly the type of action that will discourage essential foreign investment. Facing this type of hostility to economic reform, few foreign companies are returning to Russia. On a per capita basis, Estonia garnered 10 times that amount.
Most firms view Putin's reforms favorably, but are adopting a wait-and-see policy before diving back in, according to the U. If Russia fails to attract foreign investment and continues reforms that produce inflation, Putin and Kasyanov will have achieved the worst of both worlds: growth-free inflation.
This will erode Russia's remaining competitiveness while further impoverishing its citizens. Sadly, this seems to be the direction in which Russia is heading. Having already signed decrees that will further boost pensions and the minimum wage - moves that will trigger more demand-pull inflation - Putin will find it difficult to backtrack. Meanwhile, reductions in housing subsidies and new taxes on automobiles are already in the pipe - causes of cost-push inflation.
Russia is brewing a deadly concoction of across-the- board price increases and chronic inflation that will further lower the average Russian's already abysmal standard of living.
For the investment to flow, Putin must simultaneously root out corruption, liberalize prices, rationalize the tax system and slash government spending. But the Duma's rejection of some of Kasyanov's tax plans all too vividly shows just how deep the resistance to change is rooted in the country's financial bedrock. Putin and Kasyanov have made impressive progress with few tools, but unless they can destroy the corruption at the heart of Russia's business community, their reforms are destined to be all shock and no therapy.
By Thomas A. Government attacks on independent media in the postcommunist world are becoming commonplace. They provide unintended testimony to the power of the free media to undermine those who would keep their societies in a state of unfreedom. But recent attacks also highlight the extreme fragility of free media in unfree or less than free societies.
Because of the obvious and demonstrated power of free media to transform unfree societies, all too many people in both the post-Soviet states and in the West came to believe that nothing could prevent the domestic media from playing that role, that democracy was secure, and that the future was one of unalloyed brightness. Only in the year are we beginning to face up to the destructive heritage of the totalitarian system, to the impact it had on rulers and ruled, and to the difficulties of escaping from that past.
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