2000 presidential election research paper
Political Science Quarterly , Summer , volume , issue 2, page The presidential election of stands at best as a paradox, at worst as a scandal, of American democracy. Bush, but lost the presidency in the electoral college by a count of Even this count was suspect, dependent on the tally in Florida, where many minority voters were denied the vote, ballots were confusing, and recounts were mishandled and manipulated. The choice of their leader came not from the citizens of the nation, but from lawyers battling for five weeks. The final decision was made not by million voters, but by a majority of the unelected U.
US Presidential Election 2000
The United States US Presidential election was one of the closest and most exciting on record, featuring exhaustive cross-country campaigning by the major party candidates, spoiling activity by a significant third party, a nail-biting count that brought into question the basic electoral arrangements that have been in operation since the first election of , and the battles and confusion over the count in the fourth largest state of Florida.
It is likely that the country will continue to debate this election for some time after the inauguration of George W. Bush as the 43 rd President. This Current Issues Brief gives a brief overview of these remarkable events, touching on the candidates, the campaigns of the major candidates, the controversy in Florida and the final result. The election:. The paper concludes that it is highly likely that many changes to US electoral arrangements will have been made by the Presidential election The Contestants.
The names of the men chosen to be their parties' standard-bearers had long been known. Bush b. His political experience was not as deep as his opponent's, though he had worked in his father's campaigns. Prior to becoming a political figure in his own right, he had worked in the Texas oil and gas business, and was later part-owner of a major league baseball team. He was in his second term as Governor of Texas, having entered office in During a sustained Republican fund-raising effort on his behalf virtually guaranteed Bush's nomination in the following year, and despite surprise defeats in the primaries in New Hampshire and Michigan, he easily won his party's nomination.
Bush brought to the campaign an engaging personality and a proven ability to work with Democratic opponents, but an apparently shallow appreciation of policy matters and an unfamiliarity with foreign affairs. Dick Cheney b. Some observers believed Bush could have been better served by choosing a running mate from a large eastern state.
Gore brought to the contest a career that had been Washington-focused since he was in short trousers and living in a Washington hotel with his parents, while his father was serving as Senator for Tennessee.
Gore junior represented the 4 th Congressional District of Tennessee for four terms from , and was Senator for Tennessee from until becoming Vice-President in January His strengths included his ability to deal with the complexities of policy, something that played a part in his having been a far more active Vice-President than many of his predecessors.
On the debit side was Gore's awkward public persona, which made him a stiff campaigner, seemingly lacking an easy relationship with his audience. Despite this, the Vice-President's nomination as Democratic candidate was never really in doubt. Gore's running mate was Joe Lieberman b. Apart from some years in private legal practice, he was a member of the Connecticut State Senate between and , the last six years serving as Majority Leader.
Between and he was Connecticut Attorney-General. He was elected to the US Senate in Ticket-balancing aspects of Lieberman's background included his Jewish religion no Jewish-American has been President of the US 1 , his preparedness to criticise fellow-Democrat, President Clinton, in regard to the Monica Lewinsky affair, and the fact that he came from a different part of the US than Gore. Among the many other candidates for the Presidency, the only two of any possible significance were Ralph Nader , contesting as a Green candidate, and Pat Buchanan , who had gained the nomination of the Reform Party after a bitter legal battle.
It was unlikely that either candidate could win a state, but on each side there was nervousness at the possible spoiling effect of their campaigns.
In a system that uses the first-past-the-post voting method, might Buchanan take valuable conservative votes from Bush, or might Nader siphon off green supporters who would otherwise vote Democratic?
The Campaigns. The Evenness of the Contest. As the Republicans had been active for so long in the push to gain money and a united candidacy behind Bush, it did not surprise that for some time the party held a wide margin over the Democrats in opinion polls. This lead was strengthened after the Republican Convention held in July-August. Gore's standing was seemingly hurt by suggestions of doubtful fundraising practices he had been involved in during , but a strong performance by the Vice-President at the Democratic Convention in mid-August saw a marked lift in his poll standing.
The candidates therefore entered the campaign in an even position, something that was maintained throughout the campaign. Normally, the number of genuinely doubtful states declines as a campaign progresses, but in the number increased as Election Day drew closer.
In mid-October the Detroit Free Press described the race as 'a statistical dead heat', and so it remained. The final opinion poll figures clearly indicated the remarkable closeness of the presidential contest Table 1.
To be elected, a presidential candidate needs to win votes in the Electoral College. When compared with other national presidential elections, this gives US contests an unusual geographical element. The national opinion polls, while indicating the overall evenness of support for the two major candidates, effectively disguised the different campaign needs of each.
The Republicans seemed to face the easier task. Although Bob Dole, the Republican candidate, only received Most of these came from the South, including such states as Virginia 13 Electoral College votes and Mississippi 7 , and the West, including Oklahoma 8 and the Dakotas both 3. In , polls showed that it seemed highly likely that all 19 would vote Republican once more, thus giving Bush a very strong base from which to build the total of at least Electoral College votes that was needed for victory.
If one added Florida 25 , the fourth-largest state governed by Bush's brother, Jeb, which many expected would be won by Bush, then the Republicans were likely to win a minimum of votes, leaving them just 86 votes to pick up from among the thirty other states.
By contrast, the Democrats were likely to have to work much harder just to hold many states that might have been considered safe. Although the two largest states, California 54 and New York 33 were probably safe for Gore, as also were states in the North-East such as Massachusetts 12 and Connecticut 8 , a number of others appeared to be vulnerable.
Some of the 31 states that Bill Clinton had won in were no longer likely for the Democrats, including Louisiana 9 , Arizona 8 and Nevada 4. Others, including Florida, Kentucky 8 and Arkansas 6 , would be very hard for them to win. Overall, then, the Democrats had fewer 'safe' states than did their rivals.
Even of the ten states that Mike Dukakis managed to win, when being trounced in , polls showed that Governor Bush was making strong inroads into a significant number, including Iowa 7 , Minnesota 18 and Wisconsin As a rough measure of the different tasks that lay ahead in , it seemed clear that Bush could win without the largest state of California, but a loss of that state by the Democrats would be fatal for the Vice-President's chances.
At the same time, a Democratic success in that state could not guarantee a Democrat victory. An out-of-left-field problem for Gore that made his task harder was the possible impact of voters supporting Ralph Nader. It was quite plausible that the Green candidate was far more likely to strip crucial votes from Gore than Pat Buchanan was from Bush. With the exception of California, the potential Green vote was likely to be highest in Washington 11 , Oregon 7 , Minnesota and Wisconsin, all states won by Dukakis, but now offering a realistic target for Bush-even without the presence of Nader on the ballot.
The task of achieving the target of Electoral College votes was therefore markedly different for each candidate.
Bush could take much more for granted, being able to ignore the large wedge of safe Republican states, and therefore being freed up to devote much time in what became called the Midwest 'battleground' states-in addition to Minnesota and Wisconsin, he spent much effort in Missouri 11 , Ohio 21 and Pennsylvania He also targetted, and seemed to enjoy challenging Gore in Arkansas, the home state of the President, and Tennessee 11 , the home state of Gore.
Finally, the Republicans responded to Nader's challenge to the Democrats in Washington and Oregon by putting a substantial effort in those Pacific states. As the campaign progressed, Bush also began to challenge in California. This was never seen as realistically his to win, although polls suggested that Bush's surge in support, combined with Gore's relative neglect of the state, helped reduce Gore's lead from double figures to a low of about five per cent at one point.
On the other hand, and probably to the surprise of the Governor, Florida came to appear less safe than had appeared likely at first, possibly as a consequence of retirees' fears concerning their Social Security, and both Bush and Cheney came to spend a lot of time in the Sunshine State. Gore's task seemed to be largely threefold. Above all, he needed to cling onto as many of the large industrial states, such as Pennsylvania, as he could.
He could ill afford to see too many slip from his party's hands, for increasingly there seemed little chance that the Republicans would lose any of the Dole states. The Gore camp also began to sense the vulnerability of Florida, and apart from Gore often venturing into the state, it came to be joked that Lieberman spent so much time in the state that he had long since fulfilled Florida voting residency requirements. Finally, Gore increasingly needed to work to lessen the impact of Nader in Washington, Oregon, Minnesota and Wisconsin where there was a real danger that even a vote of a few per cent for the Green candidate could turn the state over to the Republicans.
The big intangible for the Democratic candidate was how to deal with what many journalists called 'the Clinton factor'. On the one hand, burdened with such dubious matters as the Whitewater affair and the Lewinsky scandal, the President might well prove to be a burden for Gore.
On the other hand, it was felt to be potentially useful for Gore to link himself to the healthy US economy that had developed during the Clinton years and which had aided the reduction of the huge deficit. In addition, the President's campaigning skills might well be usefully tapped by his Vice-President, especially as, perhaps paradoxically, the President's own approval rating remained high throughout the campaign. Throughout the campaign, Gore chose to stake out a separate position enabling him to proclaim that he was 'his own man'.
The risk was that the votes preserved by the effort to distance himself from the 'Clinton sleaze' factor, might not match the number of voters who might be stimulated to go to the poll by an active President stumping the country.
Although the motivation was different, Gore's failure to use Clinton was a reminder of Richard Nixon's reluctance to use President Eisenhower in Many commentators expected that the three presidential debates would help Gore open up a winning lead over his opponent. It was widely believed that Gore's experience and skill in public forums combined with his long-standing interest in policy matters would be to his advantage in the setting of three formal, televised debates. The commonly-held view was that the Texan's weakness on policy issues would be clearly exposed, and that his apparent inability to express himself clearly would mark a clear difference in capability between him and Gore.
In fact, the debates seem to have helped Bush and may have weakened Gore. To some degree this was caused by weaknesses in Gore's performance. His testiness in the first debate, and his oddly muted performance in the second, both earned criticism from commentators. It was claimed, for instance, that the Democratic campaign team's preparation of their candidate:. Gore's] claim to greater experience and superior qualifications for the presidency. By contrast, Bush's success in avoiding any serious blunders that would have enabled Gore to 'put him away', meant that he lost no ground in the three debates.
Essentially, Bush was helped by the generally low expectations that had been held of his likely debate performance. Representative John Kasich, an Ohio Republican, believed that Gore had missed an important opportunity, saying that Gore would one day ask 'Why did this happen? US Presidential elections are partly about policy issues, partly about planting images of the candidates in voters' minds.
According to the New York Times , the candidates simply 'devoted their efforts to blurring their differences and appropriating each other's issues'.
Gore would reserve about 10 per cent of the surplus for tax cuts to low and middle-income families. Health care : Gore spoke of providing health insurance for all children. He also promised a Patients' Bill of Rights allowing patients to sue health maintenance organisations. He promised to add a prescription drugs benefit to Medicare for older Americans.
Bush would reduce the number of uninsured by subsidising their ability to buy private coverage, would expand medical savings accounts and would make the cost of long-term care tax deductible. Social Security : Bush would use about half the Social Security surplus to allow younger workers to set aside part of their payroll taxes for personal savings accounts to invest in financial markets. Gore proposed using the budget surplus to reduce the national debt, a consequence of which would be extending the solvency of Social Security to at least These could be used for paying tuition for private schools.
Gore opposed vouchers but would expand the federal government's role in school construction and investment in infrastructure and new teachers. Environment : Gore supported the Kyoto global warming treaty, opposed by Bush on the grounds that it harmed US interests.
The presidential campaign. The presidential election pitted Republican George W. Bush, governor of Texas and son of former US president George. $ cloth; $ paper. The Vote: the tumultuous day aftermath of the presidential election. That has Research Associates.
The United States US Presidential election was one of the closest and most exciting on record, featuring exhaustive cross-country campaigning by the major party candidates, spoiling activity by a significant third party, a nail-biting count that brought into question the basic electoral arrangements that have been in operation since the first election of , and the battles and confusion over the count in the fourth largest state of Florida. It is likely that the country will continue to debate this election for some time after the inauguration of George W. Bush as the 43 rd President. This Current Issues Brief gives a brief overview of these remarkable events, touching on the candidates, the campaigns of the major candidates, the controversy in Florida and the final result.
This study investigates the perceived impact of election polls, focusing on the hotly contested U. Survey data from individuals gathered during the final days of the election campaign are analyzed to examine beliefs that the polls greatly affect other voters, general views of polls as good or bad for the country, beliefs about whether pollsters influence their results to come out a certain way, and support for banning election-night projections.
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Reflections on the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election
United States presidential election of , American presidential election held on Nov. Bush narrowly lost the popular vote to Democrat Al Gore but defeated Gore in the electoral college. He captured it easily, seeing off a challenge from Bill Bradley , a former U. Most of the excitement in the primaries came on the Republican side, as Bush faced a stiff challenge from John McCain , a U. Bush ultimately prevailed after a strenuous fight, including an especially brutal effort by the Bush campaign in the South Carolina primary.
Bush v. Gore and the 2000 Presidential Election
No work of fiction could have plausibly captured the extraordinary twists and turns of the U. After mistaken television network projections on election night leading to a concession call by Al Gore to George W. Bush that was withdrawn an hour later, and the ensuing day political and legal war over how to resolve what was essentially a tie, Bush ultimately garnered the presidency when a sharply divided and transparently political Supreme Court ended the manual recount in Florida that might have produced a different outcome. It was the closest presidential election in American history, with only several hundred votes in Florida determining the winner out of more than million ballots cast nationwide. George W. Bush moves to the White House under the most inauspicious of circumstances. He is the first president to lose the national popular vote since , and only the fourth in American history. He won a bare majority in the electoral college, and only because of his contested victory in Florida, where the best evidence suggests that flawed ballot designs, confused voters, and antiquated voting equipment kept the plurality of citizens who intended to support Gore from having their verdict reflected in the official count. While he leads the first unified Republican government in almost a half century, it is built on the narrowest of majorities in Congress, with Vice President Dick Cheney required to break the partisan tie in the Senate. Bush faces a Democratic party unified and energized by the politics of the recount and cheered by their improved prospects for regaining control of both chambers in the midterm elections.
The Presidential election of , between major party candidates Governor George W. This elesson focuses on the events leading up to the Supreme Court ruling by which the election was decided, and the constitutional reasoning of that decision.
