2012 election research paper

However, the contest had its own unique features, not least of which was the re-election of a black president. In addition, for the first time in American history, neither the presidential nor vice presidential candidate of the major political parties was a white Protestant. Given the changes in American demography, this party line-up will become more common in the future. Two results from the presidential election surprised me. First, given the constant media emphasis on the closeness of the election, it was surprising that the result was not particularly tight. Barack Obama won a commanding majority in the Electoral College: to electoral votes.

Social Media and Voting

However, the contest had its own unique features, not least of which was the re-election of a black president. In addition, for the first time in American history, neither the presidential nor vice presidential candidate of the major political parties was a white Protestant. Given the changes in American demography, this party line-up will become more common in the future. Two results from the presidential election surprised me.

First, given the constant media emphasis on the closeness of the election, it was surprising that the result was not particularly tight. Barack Obama won a commanding majority in the Electoral College: to electoral votes. Obama easily exceeded the votes needed to win the election. The popular vote was not especially close either.

Obama had a comfortable margin in the popular vote— As with previous presidential elections, the contest hung on the swing states—those states where the pre-election polls indicated a race too close to call. Depending on the media outlet, those states numbered anywhere from six to nine.

This is where the election took place. The other states were so solidly behind one or the other candidate that the outcome was a foregone conclusion. Not so the swing states. The candidates made occasional forays into states such as California and New York both solidly Democratic or Texas solidly Republican only for fund-raising not for on-the-ground campaigning.

The election-day surprise was that Barack Obama lost only one swing state—North Carolina—and that by a margin of less than one percent. In fact, the president lost only two states he won in Indiana and North Carolina. The second surprise was the remarkable turnout of the African American electorate.

Since the passage of the Voting Rights Act in , the registration of black voters has grown to be equal to that of white registrants: slightly better than two-thirds of the eligible electorate.

However, turnout among black voters has historically been less than the turnout among whites. Turnout is often a function of class: poor people vote less often than more affluent voters. Turnout is also a function of opportunity: the ease of accessing polling places, the time to wait in lines, and the weather.

Poorer people, tied to jobs, family care issues, and the daily grind of survival may have priorities that take precedence over casting a ballot on a given day. In recent years, however, changes in the voting process have enabled less affluent voters to vote on a more flexible schedule. Many states have installed early voting procedures that allow registrants to cast ballots as much as three weeks prior to the election day the first Tuesday in November.

Also, the registration process has become easier, with more venues open to enroll voters. Finally, particularly in those states and counties mostly in the South , the Voting Rights Act has required any change in the electoral process to be pre-cleared by Washington for its impact on minority voting rights.

The U. Supreme Court struck down this pre-clearance provision of the Act in an Alabama case, Shelby County v. Holder , on June 25, Still, many of these features were in place during the presidential election, including, and most important, the presence of a black candidate at the head of a major party ticket. Yet, the turnout among white voters was higher than that of black voters in the contest.

What motivated African Americans in , was not only the possibility of re-electing Barack Obama, but also the assault on their voting rights by various Republican-led state legislatures. Between January and October , governors signed into law twenty-three bills that imposed constraints on voting. In June , the Republican majority in the Pennsylvania legislature took up the issue of voter identification cards, a topic of great interest to Republican-controlled legislatures in other states as well.

Typically, the poll worker at the voting location asks the voter his or her address and then the voter signs a document verifying his or her identity. The real motivation, however, was to suppress the minority mainly African American and Hispanic turnout. Someone who does not have such a document would need to go to a government office and purchase a photo I. It is estimated that about 25 percent of black voters and 16 percent of Latino voters do not have a government-issued photo ID.

The figure among the rest of the population is around 11 percent. And young people, especially those between the ages of 18 and 29 tend to vote Democratic by substantial majorities. Voter ID laws, if allowed to stand, would have clearly suppressed the minority vote. And that was the point. Since almost all black and Hispanic voters would cast their ballots for President Obama, the statement revealed the motivation behind the move to fix alleged voter fraud.

Republicans also initiated other procedures designed to suppress minority voting. In nine states that passed voter ID laws, the government office to obtain them often kept irregular hours.

For example, the Woodville, Mississippi office opened only on the second Thursday of every month. Eight months of the year do not have a fifth Wednesday, meaning the office was open only four days for the entire year.

Texas and Florida went further in their attack on alleged voter fraud. It was estimated that roughly twice as many blacks and Latinos register through such organizations as whites.

Republicans also favored shorter polling hours, arguing that keeping the polls open too long was too expensive. This made it difficult for voters who worked early in the morning or until the late evening hours to vote.

Republicans also mobilized against early voting, especially on Sundays. In , in Hamilton County, Ohio which includes Cincinnati 42 percent of early voters were black. Ohio and Florida eliminated Sunday voting for the presidential election.

Both were swing states. Federal courts struck down or stayed most of these attempts at voter suppression. The major impact of these measures was to spur minority voting. African Americans were especially incensed at these veiled attempts to deny their right to vote, attempts that were reminiscent of the Jim Crow era when subterfuges such as literacy tests and poll taxes effectively reduced African American voting.

According to a U. Census Bureau report, The national turnout rate for all voters was Such motivation made an impact, particularly in the swing states.

In Ohio—and no Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio—the African American vote increased from 11 percent of the total vote in to 15 percent of the total vote in But the election was not only about the African American vote, though that was an important story. Another interesting aspect of the election was how it reflected changing demographics in the U. Hispanic participation in electoral politics is increasing, though still lagging behind non-Hispanic whites and African Americans.

Latinos account for one out of ten voters. Yet, the Hispanic vote was crucial in swing states such as Colorado and New Mexico. Overall, a record 71 percent of Hispanic voters supported the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama in This is astounding considering that Republican President George W. The major reason for the shift toward the Democrats was Republican hostility to immigration reform, or at least to a reform that would address the status of 11 million undocumented immigrants the vast majority of whom are Hispanic , and particularly their children, in a compassionate manner.

In addition, Republican legislatures in Arizona and Alabama passed highly restrictive immigration laws allowing, among other provisions, law enforcement authorities to stop anyone and ask for documentation that the individual was in the U. This is racial profiling. In , Republican President George H. Bush received 57 percent of the Asian vote.

Twenty years later, Barack Obama received 73 percent of the Asian vote. Although accounting for only 3 percent of the total voter turnout, Asians will increase their numbers in the coming years, as will Hispanics. The electoral influence of both groups exceeds their raw numbers since many immigrants are concentrated in swing states such as Colorado, Ohio, and Florida.

Another demographic trend is also disadvantageous to the fortunes of the Republican Party: the declining percentage of non-Hispanic whites in the electorate.

In , non-Hispanic whites accounted for 87 percent of the voters; that figure has declined by at least three percentage points in every ensuing presidential election. And even though Republican candidate Mitt Romney received robust support from whites, some of this strength came from parts of the country, particularly in the Deep South and the Plains, where state populations and hence electoral votes are relatively small.

While the Republicans were losing the new ethnic vote, they were also bucking age, family status, gender, and religious trends. President Obama won the youngest age cohort years with 60 percent of the vote, and the next youngest age cohort with 52 percent of the vote. Together, these age cohorts comprised 45 percent of the total turnout. Romney was most competitive in the 60 and older category, winning 54 percent of that vote.

However, it is not necessary to consult actuarial tables to know that it is not a winning strategy to depend upon an increasingly aging cohort for political support.

The youngest age cohort was especially important in the swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia where the Obama campaign targeted these voters in particular. Census has chronicled the changing nature of the American family, particularly the growth in the number of unmarried individuals, of working and single mothers with children under the age of 18, and of the numbers of gay households.

Gays and unmarried women in particular viewed the Republican Party as hostile to their interests. Barack Obama received 76 percent of the gay vote, 62 percent of the vote of unmarried voters, and 62 percent of working mothers with children under the age of Mitt Romney captured 60 percent of the married vote.

Unmarried voters accounted for 41 percent of the total electorate. Religion has always played an important role in American politics, and the election was no exception.

While the Tea Party portion of the Republican Party stressed that its members stand for much more than opposition to abortion and gay rights, the religious right has found a comfortable home in the Republican Party. But a Pew Research survey indicated that nearly one out of five Americans claims no religious affiliation at all, a record high. Plus, opposition to gay marriage is becoming an increasingly minority position in the nation. Today, they account for 39 percent of the turnout.

Romney won a commanding 69 percent of that vote.

The paper's other highlights include: Data analysis of the electorate, final vote tallies, vote share by candidate and trends in the swing. American Political Science Review, , Excerpt: “This article calls into question the conventional wisdom that incumbent parties are.

There is considerable concern about the role that social media, such as Facebook and Twitter, play in promoting misperceptions during political campaigns. These technologies are widely used, and inaccurate information flowing across them has a high profile. This research uses three-wave panel surveys conducted with representative samples of Americans during both the and U. Presidential elections to assess whether use of social media for political information promoted endorsement of falsehoods about major party candidates or important campaign issues. Fixed effects regression helps ensure that observed effects are not due to individual differences.

Social media is a significant part of the process by which voters are talking about their ballot selections, especially younger voters:. This difference is not statistically significant.

With the final stretch of the presidential election now here, some central research-oriented questions that are traditionally asked about campaigns are coming to the fore. The following are seven outstanding questions, each accompanied by a reading list of research-oriented articles or resources that can help inform coverage click on the questions below to navigate to the relevant section :. American Political Science Association,

The 2012 Election: What Happened, What Changed, What it Means

On November 6, , Barack Obama concluded his reelection campaign with a somewhat more comfortable margin than many had been predicting even a week earlier, Galston observes. So, what happened and what does the election mean in a broader political and historical context? Galston asserts that what transpired between Labor Day of and Election Day in was one of the more noteworthy political comebacks in recent American history. In isolation, Galston argues, the modest improvement in unemployment might not have sufficed to ensure an Obama reelection. Instead, the president and his senior political advisors planned and executed one of the best-run reelection campaigns ever, writes Galston.